How to find every new exponential trend
Introduced in the book The Future Is Faster Thank You Think, a framework is presented to describe the maturing process of exponential technologies:
“In BOLD, we introduced “the Six Ds of Exponentials,” or the growth cycle of exponential technologies: Digitalization, Deception, Disruption, Demonetization, Dematerialization, and Democratization.”
Elements
The key is to understand that these technologies affect timeless processes: transactions, communications, consumption, etc. All the daily actions we take that keep our lives ticking, and the world turning, have developed in such a way to produce a ‘post-scarcity economy’ (More on that in a later). Let’s look at the internet as an example.
Digitalization
- Information
- Written and audio communication
- Collaboration
Deception - growth seems small at first while technology is in its infancy. People over-estimate how quick the technology will change their lives.
- The Dot-com bubble of 2000 was emblematic of the dangers of over-estimating how fast the internet would change our lives. Investors used non-traditional price and value forecasting models to justify poor performance in the short-term, making many assumptions to forecast far into the future.
Disruption - the exponential effect begins to have tangible effects on how we operate.
- Google - 4th biggest company in the world, founded in 1998
- Amazon - 5th biggest company in the world, 200 million monthly users, founded in 1994
- Youtube - More than 2 billion active users
- Facebook - 2.9 billion active monthly users
Demonetization - cost of services drops significantly.
- Libraries replaced by free to access stores of information which search engines like Google act as a directory for.
- Entertainment - Renting movies versus SaaS, Streaming services versus cinemas and TV networks as distribution. Instead of Blockbuster, we have Netflix. Instead of network TV we have Disney Plus, Stan etc.
- Mail stamps - Instead of sending mail, we can use WhatsApp or Email to communicate. For sending important documents we can scan them and send an Email.
- Phone Charges - Facebook, WhatsApp and This, all have calling capabilities that operate through the internet and circumvent traditional phone charges.
Dematerialization - pre-digital forms of new technology become redundant.
- Libraries
- University - Due to information and communication advances, university can be conducted online.
- Movies - You’ll never need to see a DVD player again. My family went from hundreds of DVDs to none as we accumulated streaming service subscriptions.
Democratization - barrier to entry with regards to access significantly decreases.
- Access to information
- Access to Entertainment
- Access to communication
Opportunities
You would do well to invest and work in companies that seek to democratize and dematerialize apparatuses that add major value to our lives. Find new technology, and present the best possible applications of it to yourself. Everybody thought the internet was a fad, look where we are now. Everybody thought Bitcoin was a scam. Now, the worst possible scenario is has provided governments with accountability and competition as it relates to the control and operation of our financial system. NFTs now are being trivially reduced to ‘expensive screenshots’, however they have potential to democratize the passion economy, the creator economy and crowdfunding which was outlined on the Weatherman Podcast.
First Principles
Technologies that follow this path have world evolving potential in terms of scale
It’s possible to forecast the future exponential technologies and be proactive in trying to benefit from them
Further Reading
Bitcoin Surges, Following the 6 Ds
This concept originates from The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives